Commerical and Strategic Advice
Decision Analytics and Support
Can you define ‘plan’ as a loose sequence of manifestly inadequate observations and conjectures, held together by panic, indecision and ignorance? If so, it was a very good plan.
Jonathan Stroud, The Ring of Solomon
The BIG questions…
From a foundation of creating, capturing and communicating value, Peloton Corporate is able to order, frame and inform questions such as:
- Do we have any evidence that our strategy is right?
- How do we know that our exploration (or R&D) portfolio is going to provide the maximum possible pay-off?
- In a capital-constrained world, which projects should be axed?
- How do we respond to a takeover?
- Have we constructed the optimal portfolio of projects or assets?
- How do we recover from massive asset write-downs?
- Is this acquisition truly value-accretive?
- Do we have the capacity to endure a continued high AUD?
- Is our IT project cost and delivery failure terminal?
- Can we achieve our targets with the current supply chain logistics?
Imagination, analysis and confidence…
Flexibility and the capacity to effectively respond to rapidly changing markets is essential in a world of great uncertainty.
Every company is confronted with uncertainties such as:
- What is the AUD exchange rate trajectory?
- Is our trading partner credit-worthiness likely to reduce?
- Will we be confronted with further capital market dislocation due to European debt issues?
- How does domestic non-resources economy weakness impact our sales targets?
- Does China growth slow-down impact the timing of new mine development?
- Do increasing fuel and travel costs change our FIFO strategy?
Flexibility is valuable and can add significantly to shareholder value outcomes….but only if the uncertainties are successfully managed.
Analysis, by itself, will not lead to good decisions. Good decisions rely on a combination of imagination (crucial to successfully envisioning potential failure states and success modes), structured analysis and confidence that all major uncertainties have been considered.
Seven steps to reliable decisions…
Our approach to informing critical decisions is consistent and repeatable. It involves seven key steps:
- Engagement with decision makers and stakeholders
- Future Framing (imagining and ordering the decisions and uncertainties)
- Development of hypotheses
- Data gathering (internal and external)
- Interpretation and analysis
- Validation and communication
- Action planning
Each step has some important components such as identifying failure states, contingency plans and the conditions under which the strategy or decision should change.
Specialist capability to support reliable answers…
- Tools that provide order and structure to major decisions and help navigate critical market uncertainties including:
- Future Framing toolkit
- Market entry modelling
- Probabilistic financial modelling
- Optimisation and decision analysis tools
- Shareholder value, capital market pricing and valuation methodologies
And
- Consultants with real-world experience in successfully communicating complex issues at board, investor and senior management level.
Peloton Corporate works with senior management and boards to support critical value-creating and management decisions….
- Port operator: acquisition decision support
- Services business: acquisition portfolio decision support
- Infrastructure fund manager: negotiation support for rail asset sale
- Construction company: shareholder value analytics for management decisions
- Non-bank lender: long-term incentive plan enhancements
- Port owner: container terminal acquisition negotiation support
- Major LNG project developer: power/water supply decision support
- Carbon capture & storage project developer: business case development
- UK infrastructure developer: Australian portfolio review
- Super fund investor: wealth management acquisition decision support
In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.
Dwight D Eisenhower
Credible and respected…
Peloton Corporate works with top-tier clients across the economy and has particular strengths in infrastructure and resources.
Our clients include most of the large fund managers, domestic and international mining and petroleum resources companies and a wide range of sector-leading ASX-listed corporations.
Peloton Corporate advises on over $100bn of investments every year and our team has combined experience in excess of 100 years.
We can help you right now…
Peloton works with clients throughout Australia. Our senior applied decision analytics and support team is led by Phil Bayley and Michael Churchill. Drop us an email at helpme@peloton.group